Math for Causal Inference
All simulators

Simpson's Paradox Lab

Change who gets which treatment and watch the pooled comparison reverse the stratified one.

Day 15: Phase 1 Capstone: Simpson's Paradox, Conditional Independence & Selection Bias
0%25%50%75%100%93.186.7Small stones73.068.8Large stones78.082.6Pooled (naive)83.377.9Standardised
Treatment A success rateTreatment B success rate

⚠️ Simpson's paradox: A is better in both strata, but the pooled comparison favours B, because the arms treat different case mixes.

Defaults are the kidney-stone study (Charig et al., 1986). The pooled comparison uses each arm's own case mix; the standardised one uses the same case mix for both arms.